More on Failure of Election

21 April 2010

As Election Day draws near – less than 3 weeks left – talks of a failure of election are rife. It’s worth noting, though, that much of the noise appears to be coming from the Aquino-Roxas camp and from its supporters – personalities identified with the Makati Business Club, the Black and White movement which is an aggrupation of civil society outfits, the Bar Association and others. On the other hand, the campaigns of other presidential aspirants seem to ignore what may be considered danger signs of an imminent political disaster and focused on winning still uncommitted voters. Those who are raising the alarm are insisting on a parallel manual counting which Comelec Chairman Melo has simply dismissed as ridiculous.

So, what can happen as a result of a failure of election? One thing sure is that a regular and peaceful transfer of power won’t happen. The nation will suffer from instability that may eventually lead to a reconfiguration of the country’s social topography. In other words, should the elections fail it won’t be business as usual.

Political instability and uncertainty is certainly bad for business whoever holds the helms of power. That prospect makes the business community quite nervous. The leading opposition elements and groups that are already counting the eggs in the basket might end up being swept away just the same as the Arroyo administration. And most definitely, US foreign policy-makers in the Philippines would lose a handle that they have grown comfortable with – one who has a constitutional mandate. According to the rules and purpose of the game, this election is meant to preserve the economic, political and social status quo.

Should the election fail who would emerge as the new masters? Considering the present political developments, I do have strong doubts that it would be Gloria Arroyo in a new role. The truth and fact of the matter is that Gloria Arroyo has totally lost control of the current political processes. The fate of Gilbert Teodoro shows not only the collapse of the once mighty Lakas-Kampi coalition but also Arroyo scrambling for what’s left of her domain. It’s basically now down to GMA and Gary Olivar and her other spokespersons. Major players in the military establishment and the business community are now talking with the leading presidential contenders. The church hierarchies that used to support Arroyo’s political machinations have suddenly lost their voice. And the masses of people? They are growing hungrier and couldn’t care less as to whatever happens to the Arroyo family.

` If not Arroyo, the next most organized group to emerge strong after a failed electoral process is the military. Is there a tendency within the military establishment to assume a leading political role? It’s interesting, nay alarming to note that more and more military officers are running for public office. They are venturing into politics confident that they have a solid, widespread mass base in the military, the police, paramilitary and military-civilian organizations. This means they are preparing to govern the country themselves. Politics in the Philippines is all about power and with power comes economic and material advantages. Under the Arroyo regime they have seen unparalleled debaucheries in public office and the bastardization of democratic institutions. Philippine politics has been exposed in its very core – greed and lust for power. Everything that the soldiers and police have learned in the academy is but a sham. Today the armed agents of the state are ripe for military adventurism.

That would be tragic. For without a Ferdinand Marcos, a politically empowered military/police would be lost in the wilderness of public governance. Perhaps, only Juan Ponce Enrile would be prepared to provide a semblance of civilized rule under a condition of military control. But Enrile lacks what it takes to command the respect or fear of the population. Besides, he is already an old man and simply lacks the years to steer a nation towards a different kind of future. With the military in command, the nation will be thrown into a long and uncertain future. People then would be looking back to the Arroyo years as the golden era of democracy.

But that’s if and when the May 10 elections would fail. Therefore, it behooves every citizen who loves this country to do everything and pray for a successful election.