28 April 2010
A series of political atomic bombs have been thrown and exploded at Manny Villar’s election backyard. First, that he’s been lying about his poor family background. Then, that his real estate wealth is a product of grabbing land from the poor. The latest is that he cheated at the stock exchange and defrauded many OFWs investing in his own companies. All these seek to explode his propaganda image to smithereens.
What surprises many is that these bombs are being dropped not by the Noynoy Aquino campaign but by Joseph Estrada’s. Attacks from the Liberal Party are subdued compared to the vehemence with which Estrada attacks Villar. Pulling down Villar may enable Estrada to overtake at second place but it won’t put him ahead of front-runner Aquino. So, the Estrada campaign’s propaganda offensive is not at all aimed at winning the presidency. Rather, it is calculated to widen the gap between Villar and Aquino. It should be noted that Villar and Estrada have more or less the same mass base, the CDE classes. In other words, the one who is actually benefiting from Estrada’s attacks against Villar is none other than Noynoy Aquino and his Liberal Party.
If that is so, Noynoy may have already forged an agreement with Erap to form a post-election Aquino government. This may very well be the game plan fashioned by Juan Ponce Enrile, the tactician behind the Estrada campaign. Enrile himself has figured quite prominently and publicly in denouncing Villar. At least, that would enhance his chances of getting reelected senator. But a man with Enrile’s ego and greed would not be content with just that. It would be more like him to grab a larger piece of Noynoy Aquino’s victory cake given the chance. And, of course, Joseph Estrada would finally get his redemption in an Aquino presidency.
Politicians, especially during an election season play with truth like jugglers in a circus. Truths matter but only if they are convenient or having political value. The intention of election propaganda is not to inform but to win or take away votes. It’s ironic that the candidate who is denouncing Villar’s supposed shenanigans in the stock exhange is Joseph Estrada who was convicted by the Sandigan Bayan of stock manipulation when he was president. On national TV he called Villar a liar, an extreme accusation that one is bound to regret should Villar come out winning the presidency. But the strategy makes sense – to take away Villar’s support to insure not Estrada’s victory but Aquino’s. Truth here is used as a weapon not to vindicate justice but to secure political gain.
This is not to say that the accusations against Villar are true. But whether they are true or not is not the point here. After all, Enrile and Estrada have done worse things to the nation and the people. Enrile faked his ambush to give Marcos an immediate justification to put the nation under martial law. Some of the most brutal slayings happened when he was the dictator Marcos’ defense secretary. And didn’t he and his family business prosper immensely during Marcos reign in power? And what about Erap, wasn’t he convicted of plunder even as he bastardized the presidency with his nocturnal drinking and gambling bouts with his buddies? But all these truths are inconvenient truths that must be set aside in their drive for political supremacy.
At this point of the game, the other presidential candidates from Estrada down to Madrigal must have realized that the trend is irreversible and their fate inevitable. It’s now down to a two-way contest between Aquino and Villar. If there is any meaningful role left them, it is to help tilt the balance in favor one or the other. It is obvious that none of them would want a Villar presidency. My analysis is that Noynoy is perceived by them to be the better person to bring back equilibrium to a political situation that has sustained enormous institutional damage under Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Aquino’s political record is also marked for its lack of vision and political drive to make things happen. On the other hand, Villar is perceived to be a person who really wants to be president and is likely to use his position for whatever goals he wants to pursue. Noynoy is the one whom the real power brokers of Philippine are comfortable with.
This would be good for the long-term interests of big business, for bureaucrat capitalists, for international capital and foreign strategic interests. But is a restored political equilibrium truly good for the masses of people who, since time immemorial, have been longing for meaningful change in their lives?
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
More on Failure of Election
21 April 2010
As Election Day draws near – less than 3 weeks left – talks of a failure of election are rife. It’s worth noting, though, that much of the noise appears to be coming from the Aquino-Roxas camp and from its supporters – personalities identified with the Makati Business Club, the Black and White movement which is an aggrupation of civil society outfits, the Bar Association and others. On the other hand, the campaigns of other presidential aspirants seem to ignore what may be considered danger signs of an imminent political disaster and focused on winning still uncommitted voters. Those who are raising the alarm are insisting on a parallel manual counting which Comelec Chairman Melo has simply dismissed as ridiculous.
So, what can happen as a result of a failure of election? One thing sure is that a regular and peaceful transfer of power won’t happen. The nation will suffer from instability that may eventually lead to a reconfiguration of the country’s social topography. In other words, should the elections fail it won’t be business as usual.
Political instability and uncertainty is certainly bad for business whoever holds the helms of power. That prospect makes the business community quite nervous. The leading opposition elements and groups that are already counting the eggs in the basket might end up being swept away just the same as the Arroyo administration. And most definitely, US foreign policy-makers in the Philippines would lose a handle that they have grown comfortable with – one who has a constitutional mandate. According to the rules and purpose of the game, this election is meant to preserve the economic, political and social status quo.
Should the election fail who would emerge as the new masters? Considering the present political developments, I do have strong doubts that it would be Gloria Arroyo in a new role. The truth and fact of the matter is that Gloria Arroyo has totally lost control of the current political processes. The fate of Gilbert Teodoro shows not only the collapse of the once mighty Lakas-Kampi coalition but also Arroyo scrambling for what’s left of her domain. It’s basically now down to GMA and Gary Olivar and her other spokespersons. Major players in the military establishment and the business community are now talking with the leading presidential contenders. The church hierarchies that used to support Arroyo’s political machinations have suddenly lost their voice. And the masses of people? They are growing hungrier and couldn’t care less as to whatever happens to the Arroyo family.
` If not Arroyo, the next most organized group to emerge strong after a failed electoral process is the military. Is there a tendency within the military establishment to assume a leading political role? It’s interesting, nay alarming to note that more and more military officers are running for public office. They are venturing into politics confident that they have a solid, widespread mass base in the military, the police, paramilitary and military-civilian organizations. This means they are preparing to govern the country themselves. Politics in the Philippines is all about power and with power comes economic and material advantages. Under the Arroyo regime they have seen unparalleled debaucheries in public office and the bastardization of democratic institutions. Philippine politics has been exposed in its very core – greed and lust for power. Everything that the soldiers and police have learned in the academy is but a sham. Today the armed agents of the state are ripe for military adventurism.
That would be tragic. For without a Ferdinand Marcos, a politically empowered military/police would be lost in the wilderness of public governance. Perhaps, only Juan Ponce Enrile would be prepared to provide a semblance of civilized rule under a condition of military control. But Enrile lacks what it takes to command the respect or fear of the population. Besides, he is already an old man and simply lacks the years to steer a nation towards a different kind of future. With the military in command, the nation will be thrown into a long and uncertain future. People then would be looking back to the Arroyo years as the golden era of democracy.
But that’s if and when the May 10 elections would fail. Therefore, it behooves every citizen who loves this country to do everything and pray for a successful election.
As Election Day draws near – less than 3 weeks left – talks of a failure of election are rife. It’s worth noting, though, that much of the noise appears to be coming from the Aquino-Roxas camp and from its supporters – personalities identified with the Makati Business Club, the Black and White movement which is an aggrupation of civil society outfits, the Bar Association and others. On the other hand, the campaigns of other presidential aspirants seem to ignore what may be considered danger signs of an imminent political disaster and focused on winning still uncommitted voters. Those who are raising the alarm are insisting on a parallel manual counting which Comelec Chairman Melo has simply dismissed as ridiculous.
So, what can happen as a result of a failure of election? One thing sure is that a regular and peaceful transfer of power won’t happen. The nation will suffer from instability that may eventually lead to a reconfiguration of the country’s social topography. In other words, should the elections fail it won’t be business as usual.
Political instability and uncertainty is certainly bad for business whoever holds the helms of power. That prospect makes the business community quite nervous. The leading opposition elements and groups that are already counting the eggs in the basket might end up being swept away just the same as the Arroyo administration. And most definitely, US foreign policy-makers in the Philippines would lose a handle that they have grown comfortable with – one who has a constitutional mandate. According to the rules and purpose of the game, this election is meant to preserve the economic, political and social status quo.
Should the election fail who would emerge as the new masters? Considering the present political developments, I do have strong doubts that it would be Gloria Arroyo in a new role. The truth and fact of the matter is that Gloria Arroyo has totally lost control of the current political processes. The fate of Gilbert Teodoro shows not only the collapse of the once mighty Lakas-Kampi coalition but also Arroyo scrambling for what’s left of her domain. It’s basically now down to GMA and Gary Olivar and her other spokespersons. Major players in the military establishment and the business community are now talking with the leading presidential contenders. The church hierarchies that used to support Arroyo’s political machinations have suddenly lost their voice. And the masses of people? They are growing hungrier and couldn’t care less as to whatever happens to the Arroyo family.
` If not Arroyo, the next most organized group to emerge strong after a failed electoral process is the military. Is there a tendency within the military establishment to assume a leading political role? It’s interesting, nay alarming to note that more and more military officers are running for public office. They are venturing into politics confident that they have a solid, widespread mass base in the military, the police, paramilitary and military-civilian organizations. This means they are preparing to govern the country themselves. Politics in the Philippines is all about power and with power comes economic and material advantages. Under the Arroyo regime they have seen unparalleled debaucheries in public office and the bastardization of democratic institutions. Philippine politics has been exposed in its very core – greed and lust for power. Everything that the soldiers and police have learned in the academy is but a sham. Today the armed agents of the state are ripe for military adventurism.
That would be tragic. For without a Ferdinand Marcos, a politically empowered military/police would be lost in the wilderness of public governance. Perhaps, only Juan Ponce Enrile would be prepared to provide a semblance of civilized rule under a condition of military control. But Enrile lacks what it takes to command the respect or fear of the population. Besides, he is already an old man and simply lacks the years to steer a nation towards a different kind of future. With the military in command, the nation will be thrown into a long and uncertain future. People then would be looking back to the Arroyo years as the golden era of democracy.
But that’s if and when the May 10 elections would fail. Therefore, it behooves every citizen who loves this country to do everything and pray for a successful election.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Voting for a Phantom
07 April 2010
There is no doubt that Manny Villar’s dropping figures are direct results of the massive negative propaganda against him coming from practically all contending parties. His campaign has obviously suffered a severe setback by accusations that he lied about his poor childhood background. Charges of corruption related to the C5 controversy apparently failed to work owing to the people’s cynical regard for politicians as a whole. But contriving a childhood of poverty in order to get sympathy from the poor – C,D, & E – segment of society must have galled the people’s sensibilities. In the latest Pulse Asia poll, Aquino got 49% of ABC respondents while Villar got only 17%, a whooping 32-point lead. Even in the E Class, Aquino got 34% and Villar, 28%. Whether the accusations are true or not is irrelevant at this point in the electoral season. The truth will certainly come out but long after the votes will have been counted and the results irreversibly decided.
I don’t think the Villar camp will have time to overcome and recover in time for the election day. In other words Villar has already lost the propaganda war. Something else and more have to be done to rescue his campaign. And that can be accomplished only on the ground where people need to be convinced that indeed he is their hope for a better life. But time has run out for this. His campaign cannot any more make the needed shift of gears. Without a dramatic change in his campaign, it looks like the presidency has effectively slipped away from his grasp.
The failure of Villar’s campaign reveals the limits of the conventional strategies and tactics of electoral politics in the modern era. An election is won or lost depending on the success of image-building and capturing the people’s imagination through a saturation of the channels of mass media. Without doubt, Villar’s image of a poor boy that made it big through sheer hard work and perseverance resonated in the hearts of the ordinary folks. Aquno’s image of being the keeper of his parent’s legacy apparently wore out quickly in the course of the campaign. Perhaps, it even backfired in that his mother’s presidency failed to fulfill the promises of EDSA. But the Aquino campaign did a remarkable and timely intervention that quickly reversed the momentum – attacking to undermine the credibility of Villar’s “poor boy” propaganda line.
It’s the image, rather political issues that actually matters in winning votes. The people who withdrew their support from Villar didn’t have a chance to appreciate his economic platform that was forged through his alliance with Makabayan party – land reform, national industrialization, human rights, poverty alleviation and social services and foreign relations. Villar’s hundreds of millions could have been spent spreading the specific content of his economic programs that matter much to the poor and ordinary masses of people. Fired with his vision of economic development, the poor and ordinary could have been his very campaigners, thus multiplying the effects of his propaganda campaign.
Campaign posters and TV ads only serve to project an image that is so evanescent and vulnerable to negative propaganda. Electoral campaign as a game of image-building does not really give the people a chance to vote wisely and responsibly. They are presented with a phantom rather than the real issues. It’s a pity that Villar’s camp failed to recognize the superiority of a propaganda campaign that directly addresses the basic problems underlying the country’s poverty and underdevelopment. He had had his chance when he sat down with Satur Ocampo and Liza Masa to agree on a common platform. But his camp failed to give this platform a chance to reach out to the broad masses of people.
A different platform requires the employment of new strategies and tactics. Since a pro-people platform promises to benefit the broad masses, the campaign to get the biggest number of votes should have involved the participation of the masses themselves. Perhaps, Villar is surrounded with people who didn’t believe in his pro-people platform. Maybe, they think that this was but part of a gimmick to get progressive groups and individuals to his side. If that were true, it brings out this lesson: a candidate cannot ride on two horses, or as the saying goes, one cannot cross a river riding on two boats.
There is no doubt that Manny Villar’s dropping figures are direct results of the massive negative propaganda against him coming from practically all contending parties. His campaign has obviously suffered a severe setback by accusations that he lied about his poor childhood background. Charges of corruption related to the C5 controversy apparently failed to work owing to the people’s cynical regard for politicians as a whole. But contriving a childhood of poverty in order to get sympathy from the poor – C,D, & E – segment of society must have galled the people’s sensibilities. In the latest Pulse Asia poll, Aquino got 49% of ABC respondents while Villar got only 17%, a whooping 32-point lead. Even in the E Class, Aquino got 34% and Villar, 28%. Whether the accusations are true or not is irrelevant at this point in the electoral season. The truth will certainly come out but long after the votes will have been counted and the results irreversibly decided.
I don’t think the Villar camp will have time to overcome and recover in time for the election day. In other words Villar has already lost the propaganda war. Something else and more have to be done to rescue his campaign. And that can be accomplished only on the ground where people need to be convinced that indeed he is their hope for a better life. But time has run out for this. His campaign cannot any more make the needed shift of gears. Without a dramatic change in his campaign, it looks like the presidency has effectively slipped away from his grasp.
The failure of Villar’s campaign reveals the limits of the conventional strategies and tactics of electoral politics in the modern era. An election is won or lost depending on the success of image-building and capturing the people’s imagination through a saturation of the channels of mass media. Without doubt, Villar’s image of a poor boy that made it big through sheer hard work and perseverance resonated in the hearts of the ordinary folks. Aquno’s image of being the keeper of his parent’s legacy apparently wore out quickly in the course of the campaign. Perhaps, it even backfired in that his mother’s presidency failed to fulfill the promises of EDSA. But the Aquino campaign did a remarkable and timely intervention that quickly reversed the momentum – attacking to undermine the credibility of Villar’s “poor boy” propaganda line.
It’s the image, rather political issues that actually matters in winning votes. The people who withdrew their support from Villar didn’t have a chance to appreciate his economic platform that was forged through his alliance with Makabayan party – land reform, national industrialization, human rights, poverty alleviation and social services and foreign relations. Villar’s hundreds of millions could have been spent spreading the specific content of his economic programs that matter much to the poor and ordinary masses of people. Fired with his vision of economic development, the poor and ordinary could have been his very campaigners, thus multiplying the effects of his propaganda campaign.
Campaign posters and TV ads only serve to project an image that is so evanescent and vulnerable to negative propaganda. Electoral campaign as a game of image-building does not really give the people a chance to vote wisely and responsibly. They are presented with a phantom rather than the real issues. It’s a pity that Villar’s camp failed to recognize the superiority of a propaganda campaign that directly addresses the basic problems underlying the country’s poverty and underdevelopment. He had had his chance when he sat down with Satur Ocampo and Liza Masa to agree on a common platform. But his camp failed to give this platform a chance to reach out to the broad masses of people.
A different platform requires the employment of new strategies and tactics. Since a pro-people platform promises to benefit the broad masses, the campaign to get the biggest number of votes should have involved the participation of the masses themselves. Perhaps, Villar is surrounded with people who didn’t believe in his pro-people platform. Maybe, they think that this was but part of a gimmick to get progressive groups and individuals to his side. If that were true, it brings out this lesson: a candidate cannot ride on two horses, or as the saying goes, one cannot cross a river riding on two boats.
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