The state of martial law in Maguidanao lasted only 8 days but its repercussions are far-reaching. It’s a portent of the things to come in the next few months up to the May 2010 elections and even into what could be a post-Arroyo era. Those who closely followed the events during the martial law week ought to disabuse their minds of the belief that it was but a knee-jerk, precipitate and ill-advised action of the Arroyo administration in the face of public outrage about its inability to act swiftly and decisively on the November 23 massacre.
Declaring martial law is considered the state’s ultimate defense mechanism under extreme situations that threaten its security, if not its very survival. The state is said to be secure if it has the confidence to impose its will and decisively influence the outcome of the interplay of social and political forces of the time. But should the state believe that certain forces have achieved a position of power strong enough to challenge the state’s ascendancy, recourse of martial law would be a matter of course.
However, there are antecedents in history, particularly our own, where martial law did not arise from the exigencies of national security but instead became a weapon in the hands of dictators against its own people. Such was definitely the case in 1972 when Marcos used it in pursuit of his political ambitions. There are those who believe that Gloria Arroyo was about to do a Marcos but contrary to her expectations it misfired. But there are reasons to believe that the brief imposition of a geographically limited martial law was both a plot hatched by her inner circle to hijack the 2010 elections and a predictable outgrowth of the current political environment that was started by Marcos and sustained by the succeeding presidents, especially herself.
Perhaps, the Arroyo clique was in a panic mode when the massacre took place. She was, and continues to be, in a bind as to how to handle the Ampatuan warlord-ally. But that family is not the only warlord among her allies who had helped her get the presidency and needed onto the next stages of her plan to stay in power. Then there’s the military whose war strategy against insurgents and separatist rebels requires the arming of civilians who also double as private armies of politician-warlords friendly to her. She has concocted a witch’s broth intended to both cure the problem of armed rebellion and to insure her political security and future. But the actual power and effects of its magic are more than what she had asked for. The military’s counterinsurgency campaign and the morphing of warlords into blood-thirsty monsters have acquired of life of their own. While faithfully paying their debts to the sitting president, they have hugely outgrown her patronage.
GMA’s complicity and that of her generals in the making of the Ampatuans can no longer be suppressed from public knowledge. The resultant damage and political fallout have forced the Arroyo administration and the military/police to dissociate themselves from the existence of warlords. It is now being claimed by the military that politicians have abused and taken advantage of what is supposed to be a sound and legitimate policy of arming civilians for counterinsurgency – the so-called “multiplier force”. The top military command is now investigating local commanders why it has not been properly informed of this development. On the other hand, the Arroyo administration is inanely playing the improbable rebellion angle, thereby pushing aside the real criminal nature of the offense, in order to paint the accused Ampatuans as its enemy thus covering up its complicity.
In effect, they are saying: “How can the Ampatuans be our friends when in fact they are rebels? It had to take martial law to suppress their rebellion.” Actually, the crime of multiple-murder is sufficient to put them away for life many times over, so the unlikely crime of rebellion which is lacking in evidence necessary for conviction would just be redundant. Nevertheless, the Ampatuans have to be projected as rebels as a smokescreen to hide GMA’s and the military’s unholy alliance with them. Notwithstanding the huge cover up this inconvenient truth is not lost to the people.
Philippine democracy is well on its way to self-destruct as a result of a fateful convergence of a woman’s ambitions and the militarist solution to the problem of insurgency and rebellion. The events in Maguidanao follow a trajectory that started long before they happened. Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with the lifting of martial in Maguindanao and the dismantling of one warlord family. For, GMA’s ambitions know no bounds while the strategy of a military victory over an ideologically-led insurgency and an Islamist rebellion has unraveled as a failed solution. What will it take to derail this government’s express train to self-destruction?
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Martial Law: Democracy's Poison
Despite the experience of a military-backed dictatorship under Ferdinand Marcos, the People Power Constitution crafted mostly by opponents and victims of the dictatorship remains executive-friendly and overly trusting of whoever sits as president. Martial law by its very nature is undemocratic and dangerous, and given a sitting president who has no intention of following the constitutional provision for peaceful succession it is apt to become an instrument to realize opportunistic political designs.
The imposition of martial law is not subject to prior approval of Congress but may be questioned by any citizen before the Supreme Court as to its factual basis. Congress would need at least a simple majority or 147 votes to cause its termination after 60 days, but with the same number of votes may be extended in time and/or expanded in territorial scope. This Congress – the same Congress that threw away two impeachment suits against President Arroyo, making a mockery of due process and the Constitution – is more than capable of extending and expanding martial law. All that President Arroyo has to do is to promise them a bigger share of the loot that comes easy in a dictatorial regime. And this president has proven beyond any doubt to both friend and foe that she does not renege on this kind of promise. Between now and the May elections, sitting elective officials especially in the House of Representatives are starved of campaign funds and will behave according to the president's bidding including the extension and expansion of martial law.
The political scenario of a post-2010 era is unfolding faster than what the mind can absorb. Every independent political pundit and constitutionalist has come out with the opinion that Proclamation 1959 is absolutely devoid of constitutional bases, specifically rebellion and invasion. So, there must be other reasons for its promulgation. Worse, we can think of a slew of other reasons waiting to unfold in the coming days.
Now, for the immediate objective of martial law in Maguindanao. Yesterday (Sunday) afternoon on ANC, Sen. Biazon has a theory that would have been very fascinating if not for its being utterly sinister and malicious. (Among the sitting senators, I reserve my highest respect for this man.) He strongly suspects that placing Maguindanao under military rule is meant to save the Ampatuans from the crime of multiple murder, not to mention illegal possession of firearms. Already on Saturday afternoon Justice Secretary Agnes Devanadera has declared that many of those to be arrested in connection with the massacre would be charged of rebellion, which is the justification for declaring Maguindanao under martial law.
Consequently, all crimes including murder will be subsumed under the crime of rebellion. The prosecutors’ task would be to prove that the Ampatuans have committed the crime of rebellion, not multiple murders which would be been a lot easier considering the weight of evidence already uncovered and the witnesses who have surfaced. Since there is no sufficient evidence to prove that the accused led a widespread armed uprising to topple the government, in the end they would be acquitted and with it the charge of multiple murder.
Sen. Biazon stopped there, but if he is right the implications are too horrible to contemplate. The trial may take a long time but by then Gloria Arroyo will have sent the message to all quarters that she is going to protect her warlords, cut down to size the ricalcitrant among them (like the Ampatuan clan) and run after warlords opposed to her. With the full backing of the military and the police, all warlord-politicians in each and every island of the country from the south of Mindanao to the North of Luzon will submit to her will. From that commanding height, a formal declaration of martial law would be redundant. Warlord-politicians would do a better job than the armed forces to insure her rule.
She will get her speakership, a new constitution to make her prime minister and the beginning of a new Arroyo dynasty. If this scenario happens it’s not because she is powerful by herself but rather because she is clever enough to play the greed and power-madness of people in government. Using the powers of the presidency granted by the Philippine Constitution, with the right hand she will destroy those who oppose her and with the left reward those who side with her. This is happening and will continue to happen until the whole country will implode by reason of its own evil and wickedness.
Why won’t the people stop this impending catastrophe? Because people amongst us who have influence both in government and outside have no love for the country and don’t give a heck to what happens to the rest of the people. This is the real tragedy of this country – a people that has no love for their country.
The imposition of martial law is not subject to prior approval of Congress but may be questioned by any citizen before the Supreme Court as to its factual basis. Congress would need at least a simple majority or 147 votes to cause its termination after 60 days, but with the same number of votes may be extended in time and/or expanded in territorial scope. This Congress – the same Congress that threw away two impeachment suits against President Arroyo, making a mockery of due process and the Constitution – is more than capable of extending and expanding martial law. All that President Arroyo has to do is to promise them a bigger share of the loot that comes easy in a dictatorial regime. And this president has proven beyond any doubt to both friend and foe that she does not renege on this kind of promise. Between now and the May elections, sitting elective officials especially in the House of Representatives are starved of campaign funds and will behave according to the president's bidding including the extension and expansion of martial law.
The political scenario of a post-2010 era is unfolding faster than what the mind can absorb. Every independent political pundit and constitutionalist has come out with the opinion that Proclamation 1959 is absolutely devoid of constitutional bases, specifically rebellion and invasion. So, there must be other reasons for its promulgation. Worse, we can think of a slew of other reasons waiting to unfold in the coming days.
Now, for the immediate objective of martial law in Maguindanao. Yesterday (Sunday) afternoon on ANC, Sen. Biazon has a theory that would have been very fascinating if not for its being utterly sinister and malicious. (Among the sitting senators, I reserve my highest respect for this man.) He strongly suspects that placing Maguindanao under military rule is meant to save the Ampatuans from the crime of multiple murder, not to mention illegal possession of firearms. Already on Saturday afternoon Justice Secretary Agnes Devanadera has declared that many of those to be arrested in connection with the massacre would be charged of rebellion, which is the justification for declaring Maguindanao under martial law.
Consequently, all crimes including murder will be subsumed under the crime of rebellion. The prosecutors’ task would be to prove that the Ampatuans have committed the crime of rebellion, not multiple murders which would be been a lot easier considering the weight of evidence already uncovered and the witnesses who have surfaced. Since there is no sufficient evidence to prove that the accused led a widespread armed uprising to topple the government, in the end they would be acquitted and with it the charge of multiple murder.
Sen. Biazon stopped there, but if he is right the implications are too horrible to contemplate. The trial may take a long time but by then Gloria Arroyo will have sent the message to all quarters that she is going to protect her warlords, cut down to size the ricalcitrant among them (like the Ampatuan clan) and run after warlords opposed to her. With the full backing of the military and the police, all warlord-politicians in each and every island of the country from the south of Mindanao to the North of Luzon will submit to her will. From that commanding height, a formal declaration of martial law would be redundant. Warlord-politicians would do a better job than the armed forces to insure her rule.
She will get her speakership, a new constitution to make her prime minister and the beginning of a new Arroyo dynasty. If this scenario happens it’s not because she is powerful by herself but rather because she is clever enough to play the greed and power-madness of people in government. Using the powers of the presidency granted by the Philippine Constitution, with the right hand she will destroy those who oppose her and with the left reward those who side with her. This is happening and will continue to happen until the whole country will implode by reason of its own evil and wickedness.
Why won’t the people stop this impending catastrophe? Because people amongst us who have influence both in government and outside have no love for the country and don’t give a heck to what happens to the rest of the people. This is the real tragedy of this country – a people that has no love for their country.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Recycling Gloria
02 December 2009
The big news yesterday was President Arroyo filing her certificate of candidacy for the 2nd district of Pampanga presently held by her son, Mikey. The son and the husband were heard on national TV justifying the decision. Whatever the rationalization, it can’t hide the truth that Gloria Arroyo’s road trip back to power has begun.
It’s actually a non-news because everybody already knew by then her plans for herself. Once elected, she intends to get the speakership of the House of Representatives. From there she could use the Speaker’s enormous power to buy, bribe, blackmail, intimidate, or whatever, the Lower House of Congress to have the Philippine Constitution changed, paving the way to her elevation as the government’s prime minister. She can try again to convince a new Senate to hold a constituent assembly or call for a constitutional convention.
It’s a perfect script for her but who will buy it? For those who have so much at stake in the economy it’s a perfect formula for a perfect political storm, like Marcos’ martial law but in a different way. It runs counter to the goal of a newly elected national leadership to bring stability and hope to a restive people who are on the edge of being radicalized. This time, Gloria will be up against the whole establishment, including the powerful Roman Catholic Church.
For the Establishment, Gloria cannot be recycled; she is beyond redemption. She has become a liability to the economic status quo. The real power brokers in Philippine politics would rather have an Erap who could quiet down the angry poor with his populist rhetoric. The preferred long-term scenario, of course, would be a reinvented Aquino era starting with Noynoy and then after him someone who could carry on the Aquino torch. With Sen. Mar Roxas who is a scion of the old-rich Araneta and Roxas families, the Establishment could feel safe and secure and assured of their continuing grip of Philippine society. If not, someone without a pedigree but a nouveau rich who has successfully crashed into the circle of the elite, like Manny Villar, would do. Gilbert Teodoro, despite the nickname “Gibo” simply doesn’t have what it takes to get the people’s trust and imagination. Any one of them but Gloria will do to serve the agenda of the Establishment that is apparently getting nervous at the sight of a rising populace.
It’s been admitted that Marcos was the number one recruiter of the NPA. This does not mitigate the enormous suffering and violence that his regime had inflicted upon the organized Left both armed and non-armed. But something good came out of it – people became more conscious of their liberty and human rights. Now it can be said that would-be Prime Minister Gloria Arroyo would become the next number 1 recruiter of rebels.
There are very good reasons to believe that the principal confrontation in the forthcoming elections will be between Gloria Arroyo and the inner circle of the Philippine elite. Without doubt she can count on her battle tested troops in the Lower House of Congress and the local governments. Even when she runs for congress, she will still be President and able to galvanize the vast resources of government and of her political party to fuel her own campaign and that of her allies. Apparently, she also has an edge as regards the upper echelon of the military that remains in control of the military establishment. The lower levels of the AFP and the police may be disgruntled and angry but they are not politicized enough to act against their superior officers. On the other hand, the Establishment will take advantage of its influence on social institutions, like the academe, civic and church organizations and mass media in this fight.
These are the elephants of our society locked in combat. But as the saying goes, “When elephants fight they trample on the grass,” which mean us, common people. Whoever wins among them, one thing is sure – we the grass are the going to be the losers. It’s been like this since the dawning of Philippine democracy, and it’s going to be the same again – unless the people awaken from their mystical slumber.
The big news yesterday was President Arroyo filing her certificate of candidacy for the 2nd district of Pampanga presently held by her son, Mikey. The son and the husband were heard on national TV justifying the decision. Whatever the rationalization, it can’t hide the truth that Gloria Arroyo’s road trip back to power has begun.
It’s actually a non-news because everybody already knew by then her plans for herself. Once elected, she intends to get the speakership of the House of Representatives. From there she could use the Speaker’s enormous power to buy, bribe, blackmail, intimidate, or whatever, the Lower House of Congress to have the Philippine Constitution changed, paving the way to her elevation as the government’s prime minister. She can try again to convince a new Senate to hold a constituent assembly or call for a constitutional convention.
It’s a perfect script for her but who will buy it? For those who have so much at stake in the economy it’s a perfect formula for a perfect political storm, like Marcos’ martial law but in a different way. It runs counter to the goal of a newly elected national leadership to bring stability and hope to a restive people who are on the edge of being radicalized. This time, Gloria will be up against the whole establishment, including the powerful Roman Catholic Church.
For the Establishment, Gloria cannot be recycled; she is beyond redemption. She has become a liability to the economic status quo. The real power brokers in Philippine politics would rather have an Erap who could quiet down the angry poor with his populist rhetoric. The preferred long-term scenario, of course, would be a reinvented Aquino era starting with Noynoy and then after him someone who could carry on the Aquino torch. With Sen. Mar Roxas who is a scion of the old-rich Araneta and Roxas families, the Establishment could feel safe and secure and assured of their continuing grip of Philippine society. If not, someone without a pedigree but a nouveau rich who has successfully crashed into the circle of the elite, like Manny Villar, would do. Gilbert Teodoro, despite the nickname “Gibo” simply doesn’t have what it takes to get the people’s trust and imagination. Any one of them but Gloria will do to serve the agenda of the Establishment that is apparently getting nervous at the sight of a rising populace.
It’s been admitted that Marcos was the number one recruiter of the NPA. This does not mitigate the enormous suffering and violence that his regime had inflicted upon the organized Left both armed and non-armed. But something good came out of it – people became more conscious of their liberty and human rights. Now it can be said that would-be Prime Minister Gloria Arroyo would become the next number 1 recruiter of rebels.
There are very good reasons to believe that the principal confrontation in the forthcoming elections will be between Gloria Arroyo and the inner circle of the Philippine elite. Without doubt she can count on her battle tested troops in the Lower House of Congress and the local governments. Even when she runs for congress, she will still be President and able to galvanize the vast resources of government and of her political party to fuel her own campaign and that of her allies. Apparently, she also has an edge as regards the upper echelon of the military that remains in control of the military establishment. The lower levels of the AFP and the police may be disgruntled and angry but they are not politicized enough to act against their superior officers. On the other hand, the Establishment will take advantage of its influence on social institutions, like the academe, civic and church organizations and mass media in this fight.
These are the elephants of our society locked in combat. But as the saying goes, “When elephants fight they trample on the grass,” which mean us, common people. Whoever wins among them, one thing is sure – we the grass are the going to be the losers. It’s been like this since the dawning of Philippine democracy, and it’s going to be the same again – unless the people awaken from their mystical slumber.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
