Uncanny Foresight or Paranoia?

24 March 2010

There is a very worrisome distraction that is drawing our attention away from the electoral campaigns and preparations for the coming polls. This is the fear that unseen hands are manipulating the political environment to cause a failure of election leading to the operation of extra-constitutional processes aimed at keeping President Arroyo in power. Some say this is no more than a media creation meant to add excitement to an already hyped-up electoral season. But media cannot be accused of indulging in idle speculation when we consider the following facts.

One, there has been a slew of new appointments in the military command that all point to PMA Class 78 which has adopted President Arroyo as a member – Army Chief Lt. Gen. Delfin Bangit to the highest command as AFP chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Reynaldo Mapagu taking over the position as commanding general of the Army, Lt. Gen. Oscar Rabena earlier designated as chief of the Philippine Air Force, Maj. Gen. Juancho Sabban as Marine Corps commandant, and Maj. Gen. Romeo Prestoza as chief of the Intelligence Service of AFP or Isafp. It may be simply coincidental that they all come from the same batch of PMA graduates but it is no coincidence that each of them is known to be close to the President. They are put in strategic positions of command that could make a military cum Malacaňang take-over possible.

Two, the President is poised to appoint a new chief justice of the Supreme Court that would make all of the members, Arroyo appointees. The chief justice may only be one of the 15 members but the recent 9-1 decision in favor of President Arroyo’s right to appoint a chief justice before her term ends bodes ill for an independent Court. The widely expected appointment of Justice Corona appears to be the last piece for the completion of an Arroyo Supreme Court. The grim scenario is that this Court would rule the legitimacy of a Palace-led coup just like the Marcos Supreme Court of Enrique Fernando.

Three, the intended fully automated election is loaded with imponderables. Full automation has never been tried before. The time for preparation is frighteningly short. Even some school teachers who will supervise the polls failed in the dry-run. Most of the private armies maintained by warlord-politicians remain outside the reach of police and military authorities. A failure of election is not far-fetched even with an unlikely convergence of these imponderables.

The Queen is already positioning her forces in order to be ready to exploit her opponents’ mistakes or when an opportune development takes place. Some pundits, though, say that this most feared scenario is the least likely to happen, which is most reassuring. GMA’s intentions are evident but she may not have what it takes to make it happen. Her fate and that of her family is the least of the nation’s concern, although it is a matter of justice that she is made to answer for her misdeeds. But what is truly disheartening is that the nation’s institutions have suffered so much degradation that renders them unable to protect the Republic from the ambitions of a few men and a woman.

Whatever, this nation won’t be the same again after May the 10th. The change may not be as radical and dramatic as expected, certainly not. But I have no doubt that it’s going to be a turning point to something that lies hidden still over the horizon. Uncanny foresight or paranoia?