Candidate Teodoro: Double-Cross from Below

The likely elevation of Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro as administration candidate for president apparently bodes ill for opposition candidates for local government positions. Despite his increasing visibility and media coverage and infomercials, the various opinion polls show Teodoro remaining at the bottom of the heap. By all measures, he is anything but winnable. But as of last night, some 90 Lakas-Kampi congressmen and party-list allies have already thrown their support for his candidacy. Now, what does “Gibo” Teodoro have that makes him the choice of the party rather than the others with better winning chances? Does it betray a devious but brilliant political strategy to keep itself in power against an unsuspecting and overconfident opposition?

First, it’s possible that the administration party has given up on the presidency itself. It’s not that the administration has got no one to challenge the more popular Villar, Escudero, Erap or Noynoy. The simple truth is that the administration of Gloria Arroyo has run out of goodwill and trust by the people. Anybody that Gloria chooses to succeed her is bound to be rejected by the electorate. So, the aim is to let the presidential candidate lose but win in the congressional and local elections – with the help of the massive war chest of the party and of Gilbert Teodoro himself.

Owing to the media hype on the emergence of a Gloria opposite – be it Noynoy or Chiz – all eyes will be trained on the presidential and to a lesser extent the senatorial race. It is assumed that the people would not mind so much the victory of an administration mayor, governor or congressman as long as her presidential choice and senatorial slate would be defeated. Elections at the local level is face-to-face, it’s about individual candidates that are closely known to the people on the ground. They are likely not to vote for administration candidate Teodoro and his senators and still vote for an administration congressman or governor.

Second, administration officials from congressman down to mayor have a nearly insurmountable advantage over their rivals from the opposition. They have been recipient of largess flowing from Malacaňang, which has translated into programs and projects that their constituencies have enjoyed during their incumbency. The people might have hated Gloria but loved her congressman and mayor. They may despise her profligacy yet admire their governor for having managed to salvage what's left for their province. It may not surprise many of us to find out that not long after the downfall of Marcos and the ascendancy of Cory Aquino, many of the Marcos congressmen and local officials came back to regain their positions.

And thirdly, no opposition party can match the administration party’s election machinery and funds. By backing up Gilbert Teodoro’s run for the presidency, administration candidates for congress and local positions will have liberal access to that. That is their other edge to opposition candidates. They will use Gilbert Teodoro’s and his party’s money to get themselves or their subalterns back to power. Due to the fact that Teodoro is languishing at the bottom of opinion polls, he will spare nothing from his vast reserve of money and influence to win. In this election, money will flow like river and armed goons will be roaming in the countryside. But candidate Teodoro won’t win mainly because his party allies below have already given up on him but will use his money and machinery to get their own victories.

The administration may be not able to keep the presidency, but it may yet win in the larger picture. Already, top administration officials like Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya will run as congressman in Camarines Sur. Former Secretary Raul Gonzales has made known his intention to run for mayor in Iloilo. Presidential spokesman Anthony Golez will also seek a local post, and so does Executive Secretary Ermita. It looks like the tenants of Malacaňang are fast packing up their things to bring the fight to their provincial bailiwicks. For the administration, that's where the real battle is gong to be fought.

And candidate Teodoro? He will be tons poorer but he is rich enough not to get impoverished. But after that little distraction, it will be business as usual in local politics under a new presidency. And who knows that with GMA's boys and girls romping it up in the local contest a door is being left ajar for Gloria Arroyo to make a comeback via the backdoor.