Gloria's Rise and ... Fall

In the last several days, a convergence of events appears to have cleared the way to a more predictable closure of the Arroyo regime. The fate of Gloria’s political future seems no longer a subject of intriguing speculations. The reappearance of the color of yellow attendant to Cory’s funeral watch was a clear message that Congress should not mess up with the Cory Constitution before the 2010 elections. President Arroyo’s visit to the White House earned her a rebuff from the U.S. president instead of support for her political intentions beyond 2010. And now the news report from no less than a major U.S. newspaper, the New York Post about a dinner that cost close to a million pesos. Whether it was Congressman Romualdez of Leyte who footed the bill is actually of minor consequence. That fete at Le Cirque restaurant is like that of a death convict treated to a special meal before the execution. It’s an admission, perhaps unconscious, that the end is imminent.

The more serious question that should be attended to is about the political landscape of the post-Arroyo era. This era compromises that whole period of political reconsolidation from the moment the country achieved normalcy following the Cory revolutionary government, that is, at the start of the 1987 Constitution. That period was no less than the reconstitution of the old status quo before the Marcos dictatorship. It proceeded in earnest with the Ramos administration but soon unraveled under Arroyo. Apparently, the Arroyo administration didn’t have the long-term duration of that kind of status quo in mind. In a way, she subverted it under a political agenda that assures her a place similar to that of Marcos. The traditional democratic set-up of three co-equal centers of power – the executive, the legislative and the judiciary – was standing in her way. So, she subjugated Congress through what is now known as “transactional politics” and filled up every seat in the Supreme Court with her appointees. At the same time, she stacked the top bureaucracy with retired military officials (90 of them according to some sources) who had shown personal loyalty to her. She awarded personal loyalty with plum positions in the various government financial institutions, thus also allowing her extra-legal access the government funds. The military establishment was allowed unimpeded operations against what it considers to be enemies of the state in violation of national and international laws and agreements. She also saw to it that the hierarchies of the church and major religious organizations are sufficiently appeased. Then to cement the new order of the status, she sought to change the constitution.

That was when she crossed the line. Reactive political tremors have exposed the cracks and fissures of her regime, sending jitters to the business community. The church cannot support her without losing its moral influence over a scandalized and angry flock. An already restive military among the middle and lower officers might be provoked to acts of adventurism. The traditional opposition finds no future in Arroyo’s scheme of things. And the prospect of the poor masses rising up under revolutionary leadership is no longer that remote. Gloria, with her Catholic upbringing, technocratic background and political savvy, was the chosen one of the Establishment behind EDSA Dos. The same conservative forces are now poised to stop her for having betrayed their trust. Aside from her praetorian guards at Malacaňang she cannot count on the loyalty of opportunists and carpetbaggers in Congress who must now look after their own survival. The end may not be as catastrophic as that of Ferdinand and Imelda but it is likely to be complete and total. The signs have been there early on, but from the very beginning she has been living in a house of delusions that she herself has created.

The lesson is this: the wheels of the Establishment may grind slow but in the end no one among its own can escape from it. The stage is now being set to restore the old order of the status quo – the 2010 elections. The conservative forces will be on the look-out for a fresh new face that could inspire the nation to unite behind them without having to change anything. The thinly disguise political ads on national TV are played along the same theme of patronage politics that exploits the vulnerability and lack of political consciousness among the poor masses. The elections will serve the purpose of cutting down whatever ambitions Arroyo might have and return to a situation ante, but for the poor and marginalized section of society it holds no promise of change in their life.

But that is another matter and for another time.